How should you prepare for heating bills this winter? It depends on your fuel
EIA's October 6 forecast shows heating oil homes facing the biggest jump this winter, electric homes a smaller rise, and most gas and propane homes paying less. Here is what to check, and where to get help if the bill is out of reach.
By The Savvy Rabbits Staff ·
✓Checked twice. Fact-checked against the original sources and approved by an editor. About our standards
How to prepare depends on what heats the home. In its October 6 outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects homes that use natural gas or propane, about half of U.S. households, to spend less than last winter. Electric homes should spend somewhat more, and heating oil homes face the sharpest rise, so they have the most to do now.
What does the official forecast say for each fuel?
EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook, released October 6, 2026, gives these average household costs for November through March, compared with last winter:
Natural gas: $640 nationally, down 9%. Northeast $879 (down 14%), Midwest $613 (down 10%), South $511 (down 15%), West $590 (up 7%).
Electricity: $1,196 nationally, up 4%. Northeast $1,637 (down 3%), Midwest $1,380 (up 3%), South $1,079 (up 3%), West $1,151 (up 9%).
Propane: $1,246 nationally, down 3%. Northeast $1,687 (down 15%), Midwest $1,305 (down 4%), South $1,164 (no change).
Heating oil: $2,115 nationally, up 21%, with the price per gallon averaging $5.26, up 34%.
EIA's October 6 outlook assumes a milder winter than last year in the Northeast and a colder one in the West, and warns that a strong El Niño could push temperatures well away from its forecast. Its next update is due November 10, 2026, so these figures may change.
Are Northeast heating costs really going up 50%?
Not across the board. The 50% figure applies to one fuel. The National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), which represents state energy aid directors, said on September 28, 2026 that heating oil costs would run about 50% above last winter, from about $1,749 to about $2,627. It estimated about $1,000 more in New England and about $779 more in the Mid-Atlantic.
EIA's October 6 estimate for the same fuel is 21%. Both start from about the same bill last winter, since a 21% rise to $2,115 implies roughly $1,750, so they disagree only about this winter. EIA's figure builds in 9% fewer gallons burned.
EIA's October 6 outlook counts about 3.4 million Northeast households on heating oil in 2026, against about 12.4 million on natural gas and 4.5 million on electricity, and it forecasts lower bills for those gas and electric homes.
NEADA's broader forecast, published September 14, 2026, put the average U.S. household at $1,030 for the winter, up $82, or 8.7%. That came before it raised its oil estimate.
Heating oil prices have since come in above EIA's October 6 forecast. Its weekly survey showed residential heating oil at $6.138 a gallon, before taxes, for the week of November 2, 2026. The October 6 outlook had projected $5.79 for November, falling to $4.84 by March.
What should heating oil households do first?
Start with the tank size and typical yearly gallons, to avoid over-buying. Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection laid out the main options in a September 22, 2026 alert:
Fixed price: a locked rate per gallon.
Cap price: a maximum the consumer can pay, with a price that may drop if the market does.
Pay-as-you-go: call before each delivery and pay the market price.
The agency recommended signing prepaid contracts by October 31, which has passed, and noted that no one is required to prepay. Its questions apply beyond Connecticut: how prepaid money is protected if the dealer fails, whether exit penalties or automatic renewals apply, and what emergency deliveries cost. It also suggests a furnace or boiler cleaning, since dirty units may waste oil.
Does budget billing lower the bill?
No. It spreads the bill out. The Missouri Public Service Commission describes it as an optional program with a consistent payment, typically based on the last 12 months of use, and says plans vary by company.
The California Public Utilities Commission, which calls it a Level Pay Plan, adds the catch. The plan "does not reduce the amount of your bill," and periodic reviews can produce an extra charge if use went up.
Where can households get help paying?
The Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, or LIHEAP, helps with heating and cooling bills and may cover emergency services during an energy crisis. USAGov (page updated January 13, 2026) says eligibility is based on income and set by each state or territory, and that applications go through the state office. NEADA's help page lists a referral hotline: 1-866-674-6327.
The American Public Power Association reported on October 13, 2026 that federal officials had released $3.6 billion for fiscal 2027, 90% of the annualized amount, with the remaining 10% not yet released at that time.
Can a utility shut off heat in winter?
Sometimes, depending on the state. USAGov says each state has its own policy, which may take into account weather, age, disability and the utility. The LIHEAP Clearinghouse table, last updated September 24, 2025, shows date-based protection in New York (November 1 to April 15), Massachusetts (November 15 to March 15) and Pennsylvania (December 1 to March 31), and in Illinois both December 1 to March 31 and at 32°F or below.
Rules can change and vary in detail, so anyone with a past-due notice should check with the utility and the state regulator. Oil tanks are filled by delivery, not a utility line, so oil households running low should ask the LIHEAP office about crisis help.
What can lower use without much spending?
The U.S. Department of Energy says lowering the thermostat 7°F to 10°F for 8 hours a day can save as much as 10% a year on heating and cooling, and calls sealing air leaks cost-effective. It adds that programmable thermostats have generally not been recommended for heat pumps, though some are now sold for those systems.
Income-qualified households can also apply to the Weatherization Assistance Program. It covers households at or below 200% of the federal poverty guidelines, households receiving Supplemental Security Income, and, in some states, those meeting LIHEAP's limit of 60% of state median income. Renters can apply, and the provider works with the landlord to get permission before work begins. The Department of Energy cites average savings of "$372 or more every year," but eligible applicants go on a waitlist, so this may not help before spring.
This article is for general information only and is not financial, tax, or legal advice. Consider speaking with a qualified professional about your own situation.
Sources
U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Winter Fuels Outlook" (October 6, 2026): https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/perspectives/2026/10-winterfuels/article.php
U.S. Energy Information Administration, "EIA expects a mixed picture for winter fuel costs this year": https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php
U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Short-Term Energy Outlook": https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Weekly Heating Oil and Propane Prices (Residential Heating Oil)": https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_wfr_a_EPD2F_PRS_dpgal_w.htm
National Energy Assistance Directors Association, "Heating Oil Costs Expected To Jump 50% This Winter as Global Diesel Prices Surge": https://neada.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/NEADA-Heating-Oil-Press-Release-Sept-25-2026A-1.pdf
National Energy Assistance Directors Association, "Winter Heating Costs Projected to Jump 8.7 Percent, Deepening the Nation's Energy Affordability Crisis": https://neada.org/winter-heating-costs-projected-to-jump-8-7-percent-deepening-the-nations-energy-affordability-crisis/
National Energy Assistance Directors Association, "Help with Energy Bills": https://neada.org/billhelp/
American Public Power Association, "HHS Releases $3.6 Billion in FY 2027 LIHEAP Funding": https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/hhs-releases-36-billion-fy-2027-liheap-funding
USAGov, "Help with energy bills": https://www.usa.gov/help-with-energy-bills
Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection, "Consumer Alert: What to Look for When Purchasing Home Heating Oil This Fall": https://portal.ct.gov/dcp/news-releases-from-the-department-of-consumer-protection/2026-news-releases/consumer-alert-what-to-look-for-when-purchasing-home-heating-oil-this-fall
Missouri Public Service Commission, "Questions About Budget Billing": https://psc.mo.gov/CMSInternetData/ConsumerInformation/Questions%20About%20Budget%20Billing.pdf
California Public Utilities Commission, "Level Pay Plan": https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/-/media/cpuc-website/about-cpuc/documents/transparency-and-reporting/fact_sheets/changes-education-level-pay-plan-v001.pdf
U.S. Department of Energy, "Home Upgrades": https://www.energy.gov/save/home-upgrades
U.S. Department of Energy, "How to Apply for Weatherization Assistance": https://www.energy.gov/cmei/scep/wap/how-apply-weatherization-assistance
U.S. Department of Energy, "Weatherization Assistance Program": https://www.energy.gov/cmei/scep/wap/weatherization-assistance-program
Our take
This take is opinion, not professional advice.
The Savvy Rabbits Staff
Our editors' take
We would not plan around the 50 percent figure or the 21 percent figure alone. Both start from nearly the same bill last winter, and they disagree about this one. An oil household can budget for the range, roughly $2,100 to $2,600, and treat the gap as the real information. We would also push back on the idea of a Northeast-wide spike. Most Northeast homes heat with gas or electricity, and EIA's October 6 forecast has both of those bills falling there. The harder call is a fixed oil price. If EIA's October 6 forecast is right, prices fall through March and a lock near today's level looks expensive by spring. If prices climb instead, the same lock looks smart. Nobody can tell you which in November. Asking about exit fees costs nothing, and it is the part of the decision a household controls.
